Forecasting Trump’s Future
Like many Americans, I was dismayed and saddened to see so
many American voters support a Presidential candidate who openly insulted other
Americans, who mocked people with disabilities, who threatened to oppress an
entire religion, who has screwed people over in business for his entire career,
who insulted a Gold Star family and their dead veteran son, who bragged about
fondling and kissing women against their will, and lied to his supporters 91%
of the time. My conservative friends have defended their vote, claiming that
Trump, a member of the .00000000001%, is a “Man of the People” and will bring
back the values that “made America Great.”
I have refrained (mostly) from condemning these people, despite
their making a choice that I believe is wrong for our country. I do not believe
people who voted for Trump are stupid, or necessarily racist, but the avid
support of his candidacy by the KKK and other White Supremacists should give us
all pause. Trump’s failure to get a mandate from voters will restrict his
ability to carry out his program. Considering most voters did not vote for him
(or Hillary), he will have a hard time claiming that most Americans support the
extremist policies he voiced during the campaign.
Donald Trump is not yet President, so I will not be
criticizing him for his actions until he takes office. I will wait and see if
he is able to accomplish ANY of the things he has promised his supporters. Even
so, Trump made a number of quite clear promises during the campaign. These ten
objectives seemed to be at the top of his to-do list: 1) Repeal ACA, 2) Build the
Wall, 3) Deport “Illegal” Immigrants, 4) Ban Muslims from the country, 5) Give
Massive Tax Breaks, 6) Bring back industry to the US, 7) Rebuild the Military,
8) End the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, 9) End Climate Change Actions and 10) “Drain
the Swamp.” Since we do not yet have evidence of HOW he will accomplish ANY of
these things, we are left to speculate on how things will turn out.
In case you didn’t know, like Carnac the magnificent, I have
the ability to predict the future. I am therefore sharing my prognostications
on our immediate political future. They are all my personal opinions, although
my beliefs on the subject are shaped by the many statements made by Trump,
himself. Given those statements, I have little confidence that ANY of these
policies will actually be accomplished and, at some point, Trump may face
considerable unrest when his extremist supporters turn on him for failing to
get them a job, good health care or an inexpensive education. Let’s take a look
at each of these 10 goals and see if they are achievable or not.
1)
Repeal
the ACA Trump is certainly not alone in calling for
an end to the health policy they call “Obamacare.” Republicans have done pretty
much NOTHING for the last 8 years except pathetically pass laws repealing the
ACA, despite there being no chance of doing so as long as Obama was President.
Despite their obsessive hatred of a plan that was actually created by
Republicans, they have been unable to craft ANY alternative, despite having 8
years to do so. My guess is they will not be able to do it in the next 50 days,
either. Right off the bat, the new Republican administration will vote to
repeal the health care plan on their first day but will be unable to explain
why turning over ALL decisions about health care to private insurance companies
will provide us all good health care. The 20 million Americans who will lose
their care, will probably not be happy. Also, Republicans are going to be
sorely disappointed when their Trumpcare premiums go up 40-50% next year. And,
of course, since the ACA will no longer exist, its main features (no limits to
benefits, no pre-existing conditions, free preventive care, and keeping young
people on their parent’s plan) will disappear.
My Prediction: I predict
health care prices will INCREASE dramatically and services will be greatly
reduced, once we put insurance company death panels in charge of determining
who gets care.
My prediction: Trump will symbolically construct an impressive wall in some short visible segments of the border and the cost will be paid by us taxpayers.
3) Deport “Illegal” Immigrants Trump’s conservative followers seem to believe that all immigrants are rapists, criminals and terrorists (probably because their candidate said so repeatedly). Despite evidence showing that immigrants are MORE law-abiding than other Americans, Trump has convinced many Americans that the promise made on our Statue of Liberty no longer exists. The US, according to them, no longer welcomes the oppressed, the hungry and the desperate refugees fleeing the wars that we are conducting in their homeland. The President-elect has already walked this one back, saying that he would only “start” deporting criminal immigrants –a small subset of what he calls “illegal” immigrants. It’s hard to see how he will explain this meager response to his supporters, who will be expecting to live in a country with no foreign people.
My prediction: Trump will deport a few thousand “criminal” immigrants but will be unable to massively deport the 15-20 million people he would like to get rid of. Hopefully, his followers will be OK with his failure to carry out one of his main promises.
4) Ban
Muslims from the country Trump has
said he will ban ALL immigration from any country that has terrorists in it
until we can figure out “what is going on…” As you might guess, my trust that
he will be able to determine what is “going on” is pretty low. Much of Trump’s
support has come from religious groups, but they seem to have a hard time
reconciling his characterization of ALL Muslims as terrorists with the Bible’s
exhortations to “Love Thy Neighbor.” There are around 1.6 billion Muslims in
the World – about 25% of the earth’s population. Over 2 ½ million Muslims
currently live in the US. Most of the refugees seeking to enter the country are
coming from the three countries we have been bombing almost constantly for 25
years, but it does not seem likely that Trump will recognize this fact.
My prediction: Trump will continue our engagement
in perpetual warfare in the Middle East, creating MORE terrorists, and increasing
pressure on the US to accept more of the victims of our bombing.
My prediction: Instead of decreasing debt, Trump will
INCREASE it more than any other American President, and the economic inequality
that is strangling our nation will greatly increase.
6)
Bring
back industry to the US I
consider this pretty much a pipe dream. Other than weaponry (and the auto
industry saved by President Obama), America no longer has a manufacturing
capability. We have allowed corporations to turn their backs on the workers who
generated considerable wealth for them and move to countries where they can pay
workers a slave wage. Textiles are no longer made on the east coast. US steel
production is at all but a standstill. The idea that trump can convince any
significant number of corporations to return to the US, re-invest in new plant
technology and pay a living wage is totally delusional.
My prediction: The corporate flight to Third World countries will
accelerate and even low-level service jobs will disappear here and pop up in
Vietnam and Pakistan.
7)
Rebuild
the Military Trump has
consistently painted our nation’s military forces as dangerously ill-equipped,
understaffed, under-resourced, and led by people that do not know what they are
doing. He paints a dire picture of the world’s biggest superpower limping along
with a puny military, and no ships, planes or weapons to back up our
Imperialism. According to Trump, the world only respects military might and
nobody will do what we tell them to unless we have the capability of wiping
their nation off of the face of the Earth. Of all of his promises, this one
seems the most possible, but our country is almost bankrupt now from supporting
our bloated military budget, which grows exponentially every year with no end
in sight. Our current military expenditures of around $711 Billion are greater than the REST OF THE WORLD
combined.
My prediction: Trump will ask for “YUGE” increases in military spending and the Republicans who run Congress will give it to him. While this might make defense contractors wealthier, this money does NOTHING to make America great – it just makes us a rich bully.
8)
End the Iranian
Nuclear Agreement This one blows
my mind. Everybody, both right and left, were concerned about the possibility of
Iran developing a nuclear weapon. To end such a possibility, President Obama
achieved an agreement with Iran that GUARANTEES they cannot build a weapon for
at least 10 years. Iran had to destroy most of its centrifuges, fill in its
main reactor with concrete, allow inspectors to go anywhere they needed to, and
ship all of their nuclear material out of the country. Sounds good, right? Not
according to my conservative friends, who assured me the agreement GUARANTEES
Iran will have a nuclear weapon. They, of course, have no proof whatsoever,
that such an outlandish claim is true, but that does not stop them from believing
such an unbelievable idea. Trump seems convinced that he can just tear up an
agreement made by the US and the P5+1 countries (the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China—plus Germany) and the European Union.
My prediction: Trump will be totally unable to renege on the agreement, even though the Republicans in Congress will vote for massive sanctions on Iran – in violation of the agreement. The International community will fail to support ending an agreement that has already accomplished much what Trump says he wants to do.
9) End
Climate Change Actions At this
point, the only people who deny man-made climate change are misinformed
conservatives who believe we are entering a new ice age. Despite
record-breaking temperatures every month, rising sea levels, more violent
storms, prolonged droughts and disappearing glaciers, conservatives continue to
protect their fossil-fuel industry idols, defending their rapacious practices,
denying that they do anything to harm the environment and calling for massive
burning of dirty fossil fuels. Republicans in Congress have pretty much already
destroyed any government support for a movement towards clean energy, all while
arguing vociferously for more subsidies of Big Oil.
My prediction: Trump will
not be able to revive the “Clean Coal” industry (a fossil-fuel fantasy) and
those coal miners in West Virginia will be sorely disappointed. Republican America
will be ridiculed by the global community for ignoring the biggest crisis
facing humanity.
10)
Drain the
Swamp It became painfully obvious
during the recent Presidential campaign that Donald Trump knew NOTHING about
governance. NOTHING about legislating. NOTHING about compromise. Don’t worry,
we were told by Republicans. “Donald will surround himself with “good people,”
who will know the right thing to do.” Their candidate railed against “special
interests” in every rally. He berated the lobbyists, policy wonks and Wall
Street manipulators who put undue pressure on public officials. He criticized
Hillary Clinton as a corrupt “pay for play” politician who demanded campaign
donations in exchange for support. How surprised we were to see that, as soon
as it was time to start finding those “good people,” Trump turned to those who
he was criticizing. He placed many Wall Street lobbyists on his transition team.
He appointed a White Supremacist as his right hand man. He appointed a Senator
with racist baggage as his Attorney General.
Worse, he refused to separate
himself from his business interests and it is this decision that will
ultimately defeat him. Maybe nobody mentioned the “conflict of interest” thing
to him when he was pondering his decision to run for President. Maybe he just thought
people loved him so much, they would overlook his complex web of business relationships
with the very foreign countries he will be dealing with. The fact is, his
decision to let his family run the business while he serves as President is
completely untenable. It will NOT WORK. His family is NOT a blind trust. He
knows exactly what he owns and where, so he cannot insulate himself from the
everyday decision-making. It is likely that EVERY move he makes in the foreign
policy arena will be questioned. By letting his children sit in his
face-to-face meetings with foreign officials, how can we be sure they are not
acting in a “pay for play” situation? The ONLY way Trump can avoid endless
accusations of corruption is to totally divest himself of his fortune. He must
liquidate his assets, sell off the ones he owns and completely separate himself
from the former Trump financial empire. I see the chances of that happening as
zero to none.
My prediction: The
Trump administration will have more corruption charges than any past administration
and many of them will result in criminal prosecutions.
I have to say that I hope NONE of
these predictions come true. I DO want my nation to succeed, although America,
as we once knew it, is DEAD. Once we became a one-party oligarchy, those quaint
ideas about Democracy and personal liberty disappeared and it does not seem
likely they will return. At any rate, I will probably visit these predictions a
year from now and see how things have worked out. Maybe I will be surprised,
and will find myself living in a country that respects all of its citizens,
provides jobs for everyone, offers health care for all and maintains a social
safety net, but I am not holding my breath. Like most Americans, I will be
watching our next President’s actions with great interest and will be anxious
to see whether his goals were anything more than empty campaign promises……….