New Year's Resolutions - More Important Than Ever

Given the total turmoil in our current society, there is a certain amount of risk in making firm resolutions about the future. No matter what my aspirations, it all could be for nothing if the upcoming cataclysm ends “normal” life as we know it. Climate catastrophes, power disruption, environmental poisoning, and even Civil War could break out at any moment.

Despite this, I think it may be time to make a few resolutions that, if nothing else, may help to keep me focused in the New Year. Here are the things I hope to improve about myself in the near future.

Appreciate my friends and family

Death can happen to anybody at any time. I don’t mean to be depressing here, but you never know when someone you love will pass on. I will strive to treat EVERY interaction with my friends and family as if it was my last. I will treasure each exchange and try to show respect for everyone’s point of view.

Simplify my life

I am a hoarder. In the course of my life, I have accumulated a large amount of “stuff.” Interesting stuff, for the most part, but there is a lot of it, and it tends to make my life more complicated. Most of what I have is analog information of one type or another (books, records, tapes, maps, magazines, etc.) and has little intrinsic value. I hope to sift through this mountain of stuff and do a massive sorting – determining what things are of no use to anyone and getting rid of it, finding good homes for some of it, and essentially trying to reduce the things in my environment.

Travel more

This will be my first full year in retirement and I hope to spend a good part of it on the road, visiting friends and family, and taking a lot of photographs. I have no idea how much longer I will be healthy enough for hiking and long distance traveling, so I better do it now while I still can.

Be more accurate

My Facebook friends know that I treat my Timeline as sort of my own National Geographic Channel. In addition to my own photographs, I often post things of a historical or geographic nature on a wide variety of subjects. I don’t always get it right. I do try to make sure the things I write are accurate, but sometimes have my facts wrong. Fortunately, my “brain trust” of Facebook friends catches the errors and discretely provide the correct information. I am hoping to ensure more accuracy in my posts and will do the research necessary to make sure I am not just spreading “fake news.”

Be more fair

I cannot deny that I have somewhat firm political and economic opinions. At this point, most of us do. I have strong liberal and progressive values, and have often entered into lively exchanges on social media about politics, racism, economics, the environment and gun violence. I do have a number of conservative friends and they often respond to my comments with considerable vigor. Despite my attempt to only argue the facts and never attack anyone personally, I apparently cross the line at some point. In the last year, I have been accused of being vicious, hateful, racist, bigoted, ignorant, and retarded. Obviously, I am not doing a good job of displaying a sense of fairness, and I need to make sure I am arguing against the content of what people say and not their character.

Restore Democracy

This year, we all witnessed the destruction of Democracy in the United States. Based on Donald Trump’s questionable “victory” last year, Republicans have seized control of the government, filled it with the biggest swamp monsters they could find, and totally abandoned all pretenses of participatory democracy. They are eagerly dismantling government, selling off public assets to the highest bidder, withdrawing from the World stage and accelerating the flow of wealth upwards to the .0000000001%.

All of this is being done while denying ANY involvement of the opposition party. The United States is now officially a one-party dictatorship – one led by a narcissistic fat-cat with little grasp of economics, history, science or World affairs.

I will not stop voicing opposition to this. I intend to advocate, lobby, agitate, march, and speak out in every way I can about the current crisis we face. America is too good an idea to let be destroyed by greed.

I will try to keep this political commentary off of my Facebook timeline as much as I can. I will still be posting pretty flower pictures, photos of nice roads and such things, but our very future is now at stake, and I sometimes feel the need to point out some of the absurdities of our situation. These are issues we can no longer ignore.  The forces of inequality that are tearing our nation apart can either destroy us, or force us to figure out a more cooperative model for society. I will never stop advocating for the latter. 

Tired of Winning Yet?

We heard it a hundred times on the campaign trail.

“I am a winner”

“I am the only person who can fix things”

“I can make the deal”

“Nobody knows more about taxes than me”

We were promised a tsunami of legislation, a rollback of every legislative achievement made by the Democrats in the previous administration. As we reach the end of Trump’s first year in office, we are slowly coming to the realization that he lied about his abilities – ALL of them. His wave of Republican bills was a fantasy, and he seems to have as much interest in the details of legislation as he does reading the Constitution, essentially none.

Meanwhile, his GOP sycophants have been busily at work, dismantling the government piece by piece. Shredding the regulations that protect us. Selling off public lands to the highest bidder. Firing career civil servants on a mass scale. Censoring government research.

But their big LEGISLATIVE “win” has yet to appear. Despite having total control of all three branches of government, they have been unable to achieve ANY legislative accomplishments. They seem to be on the verge of a vote that they will certainly claim as a “victory” but most Americans know better.

For one thing, they had to destroy Democracy to do it.

They didn’t ask permission. They just did it. Right in front of us.

Congress, despite being a public body, still operates with a certain level of secrecy. Other than C-SPAN junkies like me, few Americans know, or even care, about how bills make their way through Congress. Essentially, the process is described by the Constitution, but the actual nitty gritty about how to actually achieve effective legislation involves what has become called “regular order.”

We have sadly learned over the years that involving BOTH parties in major legislation is a necessity. This is, of course, how Democracy works. Competing ideas and policies are advocated for, and then voted on. The appropriate committees in each branch are selected to gather input on proposed legislation. They then schedule hearings, markups and public testimony to craft a bill that is acceptable.  Both parties can make amendments to the process and, if there is enough support, have them voted on. Once each house passes a bill, a conference committee is held where, once again, there are opportunities for both sides to craft something that can get enough votes.

Note that my description of regular order assumes BOTH parties are actively involved with working out the final bill. That was NOT the case with the GOP attempt to gut the Affordable Care Act, and it is certainly not the case with their proposed tax break for billionaires.

Republicans complained very loudly after passing of the ACA that it had been rammed down the throats of legislators. They loved to joke using the line “We have to vote on it, to see what is in it.”

It was all a LIE.

The process leading up to the ACA’s passage involved dozens of hearings. Republicans were allowed to add HUNDREDS of amendments to the final product. They knew EXACTLY what was in it.

They now seem totally blind to the hypocrisy we are all now seeing. First of all, the Republicans are doing all of this monetary juggling of the tax code under special rules. Because the tax bill is technically not a budget bill, they are allowed to pass it with only a simple majority of votes, instead of the usual 60.

The entire bill was being re-written right up until the time it was voted on in each house, so NOBODY had a chance to fully read the provisions.

NO Democratic participation was allowed.

NO hearings were held.

NO public testimony was sought.

The final conference bill was written behind closed doors by a couple of rich white Republicans and released just before the vote to make sure nobody has time to read it. If ever there was a bill that was “crammed” down anybody’s throat – this is it.

Whatever respect I had for John McCain disappeared when he announced he would certainly support this tax bill because it had been done in “regular order.”

So, I will laugh out loud at the Republicans when they strut about, crowing about their huge “victory.” What a joke! 

Even with the deck stacked entirely in their favor and given every possible advantage,  they are struggling to come up with something they can all agree on. The legislation they are about to vote on already is opposed by a majority of Americans, for obvious reasons.

 I did take some political science in college and I learned that there is a name for a country with one-party rule – a DICTATORSHIP. I fear we are rapidly becoming one and this silent coup d’etat has eliminated the one safeguard we have against tyranny, an open and honest debate about our country’s future. It’s hard to have a debate when only one side is represented.

Requiem For America

I never thought I would see the day.

For 241 years, our experiment with democracy has persevered against revolts, depressions, panics and even a Civil War. Although certainly not perfect, the original documents drawn up to form our Union have given us a framework that could accommodate differing beliefs, regulate public affairs and protect us from foreign intervention. How sad to see it all end……

The one-party Oligarchy now in control of our nation bears no resemblance whatsoever to American Democracy.

The coup happened slowly. There were no tanks in the streets. The TV stations were not seized. There were no widespread roundups of political opponents. Instead, the process of destroying America took decades, and happened right in front of our eyes. We were too blind to see it, and now it may be too late.

Like everyone my age, I took “Civics” classes, starting in Junior High. I actually learned a few things. I found out how our Founding fathers figured out a way to create PUBLIC power to counteract the growing influence of the mercantile Class and the fading power of Kings and the Pope. I learned the advantages of a tripartite government and the importance of checks and balances. I admired the attempts to improve the original Constitution by adding important protections and regulations through the Amendment process. I learned how laws are made.

Apparently, there are a lot of people in Congress who skipped that class….

I am currently watching C-SPANs coverage of the GOPs latest attempt to achieve some type of legislative “victory,” No matter what the cost to society. They claim to be creating a tax “reform” but are actually trying to increase the money going to rich people.

 
The hypocrisy is off the charts.

For 8 years, Republicans angrily decried President Obama’s dictatorial health care that was “rammed down their throats.” Oh, the outrage! Oh the hand-wringing.

None of this was true. The process of passing the Affordable Care Act included a multitude of hearings, hours of expert testimony and the GOP were allowed over a hundred amendments. It took almost 2 years to get the bill passed, and even then it wasn’t safe. The House voted to repeal or amend it more than 50 times since it was originally voted on.

The process we are witnessing today is the EXACT OPPOSITE.

There were NO hearings.

There were NO expert witnesses.

There were NO amendments allowed by the opposing party.

The bill was hammered out in a closed-door room, kept secret, and only unveiled 4 days before the vote, guaranteeing there would be no time to get an accurate CBO score.

The Republicans have abandoned all democratic pretenses, and are using their hold on power to force through damaging legislation that will affect 100% of the American people. The audacity of it is astounding.

They are so desperate to achieve any sort of legislative “win,” that they are willing to allow 13 million people to be “free” to not have health care. They have no apparent compunction about using money from America’s safety net to give wealthy people more wealth.

That quaint democracy I read about in my Civics book no longer exists. That cute diagram showing how laws are made is a silly anachronism. The forces of authoritarianism are in control now and political expediency rules the day. 

The Oligarch calling himself President seems apparently clueless about his role in bringing about the downfall of America. The only way he was able to achieve an Electoral College victory was by widespread voter suppression, highly-partisan gerrymandering, and with the help of the entire Russian propaganda apparatus.

So far, his ONLY accomplishment after a year in power is the appointment of Neil Gursuch to the Supreme Court – a seat that was unconstitutionally seized by the GOP. Now that he leads the party, he has expressed strong desires to interfere with the Federal Judiciary and only appoint judges favorable to himself.  Trump has also surrounded himself with tycoons, generals and family members – a dead giveaway of a despot.

Sadly, the GOP dystopia we now face is disheartening. Despite conservative claims that we have the best economic system in the World, everywhere I look there is a shortage of wealth, and it's pretty clear it is because we have given it all to the wealthy.

The GOP has found ever more effective ways to funnel wealth upwards into the hands of the .000000000001%. This latest attempt will do nothing but increase the vast disparity in wealth that already exists today.

So, I guess we had a good run….. Fortunately, I was born during a period where Democrats were the ones shaping our society. Full employment, good health care, and high wages were the goals of the Democrats, and, until Ronald Reagan came on the scene, things were good.

I already miss America and wish we could go back to a time when it still existed. My only hope is that the situation will become so horrible that Americans will demand that we bring it back. We have already seen inklings of a major shift in political thinking and, with any luck, it will sweep away the fascists, racists sexists and bigots that now claim to speak for us. I will never stop speaking about it, and I will be able to say I was a patriot to the end.

None Dare Say His Name

Ever since it was announced that Donald Trump had enough electoral votes to claim victory in the 2016 Presidential election, liberals realized that America now faced a threat greater than ever before. The very foundations of our Democratic order were being questioned by the bullying, reality show TV star now pretending to be President of the United States.

The need for resistance to the usurper was obvious, but there was one problem: his name. Trump had made a fortune just on the use of his name, and liberals did not want to give his brand even more exposure than it was already receiving. How can he be attacked, if we can't even say his name? Essentially, his critics just have decided to use the term “45,” for instance to avoid using the name “Trump.”

I totally disagree.

Yes, I too, avoided his name at first, using the more accurate term “The Oligarch” instead. But, as I watched Trump flail aimlessly in his first 6 months, I realized that his name was actually his Achilles Heel weakness .

Sadly, it became obvious right away that Trump ran for the Presidency with some serious misconceptions about how government worked. When he took office, he behaved exactly like a wealthy businessman would, sitting at his desk, imperiously issuing one order after another, and demanding that Congress jump to his bidding. He still does not seem to understand the “three equal branches of government” thing, and seems mystified as to why Congress is not just following his orders.

I do not believe Donald Trump will complete his term of office, and I think he will leave on his own choice..

And we can make it happen.

All it will take is for us to start using his name – often and loudly. The modern Germans have essentially demonized the name “Hitler” in their country and his name is rarely heard or spoken there. The horrors of his misdeeds were considered so reprehensible, his name was forever tarnished.

We need to do the same thing to Donald Trump. We need to make sure every citizen understands the man’s mendacity, dishonesty, and lack of human compassion. We need to expose every corruption, reveal every scandal, and make sure that the name “Trump” is associated with all of it. We need to make it so no decent person would use his name in polite company, again.

We could start with associating a terrible word along with “Trump,” essentially using his own favorite tactic against him (“Lyin’ Ted”. “Little Marco,” “Crooked Hillary,” etc.).  I favor alliterations, so I will throw out the word “Tyrant” just to get the conversation going. . “Trump the Terrible” is accurate, but a little unwieldly.

We have learned one thing about Donald since he has been in office – he is incredibly vain and cannot perceive why everybody does not worship him. He proudly flouts his name, and allows it to be pasted on golf courses, luxury hotels and office towers. If the Trump name can be denigrated to the point where it starts affecting his bottom line, he will quickly take notice. As the scandals mount, eventually Trump will realize that playing President was a lot harder than his former roles. As the demonstrations grow, his “brand” will not look so attractive to developers. At some point, he will have to understand that his public incompetence is seriously hurting his undeserved reputation as being a “good business man.”

So I say – keep up the pressure. Attach his name to every protest sign. Make sure the voting public associates that name with the values that Trump promotes – intolerance, bigotry, greed and racism. Every homeless encampment should be called a “Trumpville.” Our disintegrating health care system should be called “Trumpcare” at every opportunity. If we can destroy the Trump name in the same way they did President Obama’s, we may be able to make him see the light and retire from public life.  I will continue doing my part, pointing out how abominable our situation is, and reminding people who is behind it all. After all….”Tyrant Trump” has a nice ring to it…….

The State of our (Dis)Union

I was as shocked as anyone when the results of the last Presidential elections were announced last fall. How could America, a nation that used to stand for advancing democracy, defending the weak, and promoting the general welfare elect such a vile, vain, and venomous man as its leader? Gradually, we learned that this epic upset was only possible by misinforming the American public on a mass scale. Although investigators have denied that our long-time enemy Russia, hacked any individual voting machines, they overlook the obvious point: Vladimir Putin did not need to do anything so crude to make sure Hillary Clinton did not get elected. All he had to do was turn the entire Russian propaganda apparatus to swamping our media with “fake news” stories sliming President Obama and Hillary, while praising the eventual winner with lavish compliments. An army of Russian bots spread out through social media, claiming to be Americans who loved the GOP and its heroic nomination of a SAVIOR of our nation.

     Just after the election, I made a number of predictions about the likelihood that our new oligarch would accomplish any of his many promises during the campaign. My conservative friends, assured me that his eection the best thing that could happen to America, and agreed with our leader that we would soon be “tired” of “winning” so much. “Give him a chance!” they whined, and so I have.

     Now, six months into the new administration, it seems a good time to take a look at what he has wrought on our nation. Frankly, it does not look good. We seem poised on the brink of a national cataclysm, one that is likely to tear our country apart and could even result in a Civil War. Already, we are the last generation to see Democracy in our government. The autocratic, one-party oligarchy that is now trying to control every aspect of our lives, bears no resemblance whatsoever to American Democracy. My conservative friends, who posted endless political misinformation every day for 8 years, are now strangely silent.

     Initially, the Oligarch behaved exactly as you would have expected. Having no experience in democratic institutions, it seems clear El Presidente believed the entire government was there to serve as his flunkies. Obviously, the concept of a three-part government and checks and balances are foreign concepts to him. For the first several months, he did NOTHING but issue Presidential directives, one after another, trying to undue EVERY advancement made by President Obama. He genuinely seemed puzzled that Congress did not immediately jump to his commands and do everything he told them to. Despite his repeated claim to be the most successful President EVER, he has accomplished exactly NO major legislative accomplishments in his first six months. There is no border wall. He has not prevented Muslims from entering the country. He has not yet been successful in destroying our nation’s health care system. The only thing Republicans can claim as a ”success” is getting a Supreme Court Justice appointed, but that was only done by STEALING the seat from President Obama.

Nothing illustrates the moral bankruptcy of the President and his GOP supporters as their obsessive attempts to “Repeal and Replace Obamacare” with something “wonderful.” Intelligent people knew all along this was a fantasy. Hoping to get Republican buy-in for the health care overhaul, President Obama chose a GOP plan to base the ACA on. In order to defeat single-payer proposals, Republicans had long argued that such a system was the only “free market” solution to health care. As soon as the first African-American President adopted the system, the GOP suddenly HATED the idea and they have spent the last 7 years trying to discredit it. This is why, of course, they have been unable to come up with ANY alternative. The Massachusetts-model ACA was the ONLY way to keep private health insurance companies in business, and by sliming it incessantly, the GOP has made single-payer look a LOT more appealing.

     Ironically, the GOP oligarch has carried out every action he criticized the past administration on - usually far surpassing President Obama. The number of days playing golf, for instance. I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard Republicans ridicule the Democrats for “ramming through” the Affordable Care Act with no GOP support. Factcheckers have pointed out that the Democratic attempts to pass the ACA were considerably different from this current effort, mainly by making full use of the committee process. In the lead-up to the ACA, Democrats held hundreds of hours of debates and allowed hundreds (actually over a thousand) of amendments to the legislation, many of them by Republicans. There were 44 hearings and public events about the plan in the Senate alone. Despite this, the GOP decided not to cast a single vote for it – just because it had originally been proposed by Barack Obama. Since they had spent so much time sliming him already, the Republicans decided to label the ACA as “Obamacare” to make sure their supporters knew who to hate.

Compare this with the current efforts. A small group of white men in a closed room have been making decisions that will affect 1/6 of the American economy with NO public participation, whatsoever. No hearings. No debate. No amendments. In fact, they essentially have carried out martial law in Congress – cutting the opposition party out of the process entirely and forcing their membership to vote on a bill they have never even seen. And to think they ridiculed Democrats for saying Congress members had to vote for the ACA bill to see what was in it!

     Fortunately, the GOPs total failure to govern is now obvious to just about everyone. Despite having total one-party control over all aspects of our former Democracy, they STILL cannot agree on how much to hurt the average American. I hate to see what they come up with next……..

The Emperor Has No Clothes!

Forecasting Trump’s Future

 

Like many Americans, I was dismayed and saddened to see so many American voters support a Presidential candidate who openly insulted other Americans, who mocked people with disabilities, who threatened to oppress an entire religion, who has screwed people over in business for his entire career, who insulted a Gold Star family and their dead veteran son, who bragged about fondling and kissing women against their will, and lied to his supporters 91% of the time. My conservative friends have defended their vote, claiming that Trump, a member of the .00000000001%, is a “Man of the People” and will bring back the values that “made America Great.”

I have refrained (mostly) from condemning these people, despite their making a choice that I believe is wrong for our country. I do not believe people who voted for Trump are stupid, or necessarily racist, but the avid support of his candidacy by the KKK and other White Supremacists should give us all pause. Trump’s failure to get a mandate from voters will restrict his ability to carry out his program. Considering most voters did not vote for him (or Hillary), he will have a hard time claiming that most Americans support the extremist policies he voiced during the campaign.

Donald Trump is not yet President, so I will not be criticizing him for his actions until he takes office. I will wait and see if he is able to accomplish ANY of the things he has promised his supporters. Even so, Trump made a number of quite clear promises during the campaign. These ten objectives seemed to be at the top of his to-do list: 1) Repeal ACA, 2) Build the Wall, 3) Deport “Illegal” Immigrants, 4) Ban Muslims from the country, 5) Give Massive Tax Breaks, 6) Bring back industry to the US, 7) Rebuild the Military, 8) End the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, 9) End Climate Change Actions and 10) “Drain the Swamp.” Since we do not yet have evidence of HOW he will accomplish ANY of these things, we are left to speculate on how things will turn out.

In case you didn’t know, like Carnac the magnificent, I have the ability to predict the future. I am therefore sharing my prognostications on our immediate political future. They are all my personal opinions, although my beliefs on the subject are shaped by the many statements made by Trump, himself. Given those statements, I have little confidence that ANY of these policies will actually be accomplished and, at some point, Trump may face considerable unrest when his extremist supporters turn on him for failing to get them a job, good health care or an inexpensive education. Let’s take a look at each of these 10 goals and see if they are achievable or not.

      1)      Repeal the ACA   Trump is certainly not alone in calling for an end to the health policy they call “Obamacare.” Republicans have done pretty much NOTHING for the last 8 years except pathetically pass laws repealing the ACA, despite there being no chance of doing so as long as Obama was President. Despite their obsessive hatred of a plan that was actually created by Republicans, they have been unable to craft ANY alternative, despite having 8 years to do so. My guess is they will not be able to do it in the next 50 days, either. Right off the bat, the new Republican administration will vote to repeal the health care plan on their first day but will be unable to explain why turning over ALL decisions about health care to private insurance companies will provide us all good health care. The 20 million Americans who will lose their care, will probably not be happy. Also, Republicans are going to be sorely disappointed when their Trumpcare premiums go up 40-50% next year. And, of course, since the ACA will no longer exist, its main features (no limits to benefits, no pre-existing conditions, free preventive care, and keeping young people on their parent’s plan) will disappear. 

      My Prediction:  I predict health care prices will INCREASE dramatically and services will be greatly reduced, once we put insurance company death panels in charge of determining who gets care.

2)      Build the Wall    This was one phrase Trump used at pretty much every one of his rallies. His gullible supporters obviously know nothing about the geography of the border and would most likely rebel at paying the anticipated $25 Billion cost, after we learn there is no way to make Mexico “pay for the wall.” Experts and government officials have all agreed that making it impenetrable would be virtually impossible, as is completely securing the entire 1,954-mile border. Most of the border is forbidding, remote and arid, and any massive construction project would be very difficult to pull off. And historically, we have found one thing that can be said about walls – they don’t work. The great Wall of China, the Maginot Line, and the Berlin Wall were totally unable to stop unwanted crossings.

 My prediction: Trump will symbolically construct an impressive wall in some short visible segments of the border and the cost will be paid by us taxpayers.

 

3)      Deport “Illegal” Immigrants    Trump’s conservative followers seem to believe that all immigrants are rapists, criminals and terrorists (probably because their candidate said so repeatedly). Despite evidence showing that immigrants are MORE law-abiding than other Americans, Trump has convinced many Americans that the promise made on our Statue of Liberty no longer exists. The US, according to them, no longer welcomes the oppressed, the hungry and the desperate refugees fleeing the wars that we are conducting in their homeland. The President-elect has already walked this one back, saying that he would only “start” deporting criminal immigrants –a small subset of what he calls “illegal” immigrants. It’s hard to see how he will explain this meager response to his supporters, who will be expecting to live in a country with no foreign people. 

My prediction: Trump will deport a few thousand “criminal” immigrants but will be unable to massively deport the 15-20 million people he would like to get rid of. Hopefully, his followers will be OK with his failure to carry out one of his main promises.

      4)      Ban Muslims from the country    Trump has said he will ban ALL immigration from any country that has terrorists in it until we can figure out “what is going on…” As you might guess, my trust that he will be able to determine what is “going on” is pretty low. Much of Trump’s support has come from religious groups, but they seem to have a hard time reconciling his characterization of ALL Muslims as terrorists with the Bible’s exhortations to “Love Thy Neighbor.” There are around 1.6 billion Muslims in the World – about 25% of the earth’s population. Over 2 ½ million Muslims currently live in the US. Most of the refugees seeking to enter the country are coming from the three countries we have been bombing almost constantly for 25 years, but it does not seem likely that Trump will recognize this fact. 

     My prediction: Trump will continue our engagement in perpetual warfare in the Middle East, creating MORE terrorists, and increasing pressure on the US to accept more of the victims of our bombing. 

       5)      Give Massive Tax Breaks   Republicans HATE the National debt. I know, because they have been telling me for decades. They remind me that President Obama raised the debt substantially and this is why they voted for Trump. Well, I hate to tell you, but so far, Donald Trump’s ability to decrease our debt is a fantasy. In fact, estimates are that his stated programs, tax breaks and corporate subsidies will cost us TRILLIONS of dollars in the next few years – ALL of it falling on taxpayers to pay for. We already learned from Ronald Reagan and George Bush that giving more money to rich people does NOTHING for the average American except make them poorer. We have heard the delusional claim that giving tax breaks to business will spur the economy and create more jobs. After 40 years of doing so, the EXACT OPPOSITE has happened. Still, Trump continues to make the claim that his “business-oriented” policies will bring a new era of economic prosperity to America. And, of course, Trump may also have problems raising even a minimum of tax money, given that he wants to lay off all the tax collectors and eliminate most of the taxes. Since the President is considered “smart” for not paying taxes, why should any American do so? 

      My prediction:  Instead of decreasing debt, Trump will INCREASE it more than any other American President, and the economic inequality that is strangling our nation will greatly increase.

      6)      Bring back industry to the US      I consider this pretty much a pipe dream. Other than weaponry (and the auto industry saved by President Obama), America no longer has a manufacturing capability. We have allowed corporations to turn their backs on the workers who generated considerable wealth for them and move to countries where they can pay workers a slave wage. Textiles are no longer made on the east coast. US steel production is at all but a standstill. The idea that trump can convince any significant number of corporations to return to the US, re-invest in new plant technology and pay a living wage is totally delusional. 

      My prediction: The corporate flight to Third World countries will accelerate and even low-level service jobs will disappear here and pop up in Vietnam and Pakistan.

 

7)      Rebuild the Military      Trump has consistently painted our nation’s military forces as dangerously ill-equipped, understaffed, under-resourced, and led by people that do not know what they are doing. He paints a dire picture of the world’s biggest superpower limping along with a puny military, and no ships, planes or weapons to back up our Imperialism. According to Trump, the world only respects military might and nobody will do what we tell them to unless we have the capability of wiping their nation off of the face of the Earth. Of all of his promises, this one seems the most possible, but our country is almost bankrupt now from supporting our bloated military budget, which grows exponentially every year with no end in sight. Our current military expenditures of around $711 Billion  are greater than the REST OF THE WORLD combined. 

My prediction: Trump will ask for “YUGE” increases in military spending and the Republicans who run Congress will give it to him. While this might make defense contractors wealthier, this money does NOTHING to make America great – it just makes us a rich bully.

8)      End the Iranian Nuclear Agreement    This one blows my mind. Everybody, both right and left, were concerned about the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. To end such a possibility, President Obama achieved an agreement with Iran that GUARANTEES they cannot build a weapon for at least 10 years. Iran had to destroy most of its centrifuges, fill in its main reactor with concrete, allow inspectors to go anywhere they needed to, and ship all of their nuclear material out of the country. Sounds good, right? Not according to my conservative friends, who assured me the agreement GUARANTEES Iran will have a nuclear weapon. They, of course, have no proof whatsoever, that such an outlandish claim is true, but that does not stop them from believing such an unbelievable idea. Trump seems convinced that he can just tear up an agreement made by the US and the P5+1 countries (the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China—plus Germany) and the European Union. 

My prediction: Trump will be totally unable to renege on the agreement, even though the Republicans in Congress will vote for massive sanctions on Iran – in violation of the agreement. The International community will fail to support ending an agreement that has already accomplished much what Trump says he wants to do.

      9)      End Climate Change Actions     At this point, the only people who deny man-made climate change are misinformed conservatives who believe we are entering a new ice age. Despite record-breaking temperatures every month, rising sea levels, more violent storms, prolonged droughts and disappearing glaciers, conservatives continue to protect their fossil-fuel industry idols, defending their rapacious practices, denying that they do anything to harm the environment and calling for massive burning of dirty fossil fuels. Republicans in Congress have pretty much already destroyed any government support for a movement towards clean energy, all while arguing vociferously for more subsidies of Big Oil. 

       My prediction: Trump will not be able to revive the “Clean Coal” industry (a fossil-fuel fantasy) and those coal miners in West Virginia will be sorely disappointed. Republican America will be ridiculed by the global community for ignoring the biggest crisis facing humanity.

 

      10)   Drain the Swamp    It became painfully obvious during the recent Presidential campaign that Donald Trump knew NOTHING about governance. NOTHING about legislating. NOTHING about compromise. Don’t worry, we were told by Republicans. “Donald will surround himself with “good people,” who will know the right thing to do.” Their candidate railed against “special interests” in every rally. He berated the lobbyists, policy wonks and Wall Street manipulators who put undue pressure on public officials. He criticized Hillary Clinton as a corrupt “pay for play” politician who demanded campaign donations in exchange for support. How surprised we were to see that, as soon as it was time to start finding those “good people,” Trump turned to those who he was criticizing. He placed many Wall Street lobbyists on his transition team. He appointed a White Supremacist as his right hand man. He appointed a Senator with racist baggage as his Attorney General.

Worse, he refused to separate himself from his business interests and it is this decision that will ultimately defeat him. Maybe nobody mentioned the “conflict of interest” thing to him when he was pondering his decision to run for President. Maybe he just thought people loved him so much, they would overlook his complex web of business relationships with the very foreign countries he will be dealing with. The fact is, his decision to let his family run the business while he serves as President is completely untenable. It will NOT WORK. His family is NOT a blind trust. He knows exactly what he owns and where, so he cannot insulate himself from the everyday decision-making. It is likely that EVERY move he makes in the foreign policy arena will be questioned. By letting his children sit in his face-to-face meetings with foreign officials, how can we be sure they are not acting in a “pay for play” situation? The ONLY way Trump can avoid endless accusations of corruption is to totally divest himself of his fortune. He must liquidate his assets, sell off the ones he owns and completely separate himself from the former Trump financial empire. I see the chances of that happening as zero to none. 

My prediction: The Trump administration will have more corruption charges than any past administration and many of them will result in criminal prosecutions.

I have to say that I hope NONE of these predictions come true. I DO want my nation to succeed, although America, as we once knew it, is DEAD. Once we became a one-party oligarchy, those quaint ideas about Democracy and personal liberty disappeared and it does not seem likely they will return. At any rate, I will probably visit these predictions a year from now and see how things have worked out. Maybe I will be surprised, and will find myself living in a country that respects all of its citizens, provides jobs for everyone, offers health care for all and maintains a social safety net, but I am not holding my breath. Like most Americans, I will be watching our next President’s actions with great interest and will be anxious to see whether his goals were anything more than empty campaign promises……….

Triumph of the Swill

In 1935, the German government released “Triumph of the Will,” a documentary rated as one of the most powerful propaganda films of all time. Produced by Nazi filmmaker Leni Riefenstahl, this glorification of Adolph Hitler and his militaristic government was incredibly popular with the German people who were humiliated after their loss in World war I and were desperate to support a politician who could “Make Germany Great Again.”

We all know how it turned out. Through the use of massive propaganda, intimidation and secret police, Hitler did, indeed, get the support of most German citizens, who actually believed in his promise of an Aryan “super-race” and the elimination of any group who opposed it. Over 6 million Jews, liberals and undesirables lost their lives in the massive ethnic cleansing and pogroms that followed the dictator’s rise to power.

As we once again witness a demagogue rising to unchecked power and promising to bring back the supremacy of the white race, it is obvious that history DOES repeat itself. Promising to deport massive numbers of immigrants, imprison his political opposition and use force to repress dissent, our new Republican Reichsfuhrer seems to be following Hitler’s playbook exactly. Now, all we need is for there to be some “terror” attack (the Nazis burned their own capitol building and blamed it in the Jews) and America will be plunged into a fascist dictatorship with no civil liberties, no dissent and no pretense of Democracy, whatsoever.

While it is common for liberals to blame Hillary’s loss on the “stupid” people who voted for a megalomaniac to lead the country, I do not hold his supporters responsible for what has happened. They, and everybody else in the country were the victims of an unprecedented propaganda campaign – one that makes Hitler’s look pale in comparison. For over 75 years, conservatives have worked hard to destroy the faith of Americans in their government. This was deliberate and was done with considerable malice. We were told that ANY policy designed to benefit (non-business) people was contrary to our national interest. We were told repeatedly that our government was evil, corrupt, inefficient, wasteful, and filled with jack-booted thugs who wanted to “steal” tax money from hard-working bigots and give it to the undeserving poor – you know, the hungry children, senior citizens in poverty and the homeless veterans that fill our country. Obviously, their campaign was successful. Who would have guessed that incessant repetition of anti-government rhetoric would create a generation of conservatives that HATE America? Who would have thought that constant vilifying and demonizing a dedicated public servant like Hillary Clinton would convince many Americans that she is corrupt?

The word “propaganda” is interesting. Most Americans, if asked, will recall that it was used by the Nazis but, after their defeat, was no longer a feature of politics. Nothing could be further from the truth. Just like when the Pentagon enlisted Nazi rocket scientists to build our space program, conservatives took the techniques used by the Nazi’s propaganda ministry and improved upon them. Their first target was the Communists, and for 70 years they carried out the biggest propaganda campaign in history to convince Americans that our greedy “Free Enterprise” system was far superior to the socialistic economies of the Soviet Union, Soviet China and pretty much any country with socialistic features. We, of course, accused the Russians of misinforming their people because, in our view, no sane person would submit to Soviet authority. According to conservative belief, the only way the Soviets could maintain control was through the use of widespread propaganda.
Which is probably why they adapted the technique for themselves. Most people are familiar with the concept of the “Big Lie.” The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book “Mein Kampf”, about the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously."
Hitler’s propaganda Minister, Joseph Goebbels amplified Hitler’s original idea and added this important insight: “The essential English leadership secret does not depend on particular intelligence. Rather, it depends on a remarkably stupid thick-headedness. The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it. They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous.” It is obvious now that Goebbels and the Nazis used the Big Lie to turn long-standing anti-semitism into mass murder.



It is this constant disinformation that has turned our nation into a country unrecognizable by our Founding Fathers. They believed in the power of the ballot and thought that an intelligent person (sadly, they did not include blacks or women) could use their free will to cast a vote for the candidate of their choice. Reason and logic would determine the outcome of elections, in their view. The politician offering the most effective public policies would be elected and the political grifters, con-men and liars would be turned out by an informed public. This worked pretty well for the first 200 years or so but the whole concept fell apart with the rise of modern propaganda.

We now know, for a fact, that voters can be “programmed” to believe ANYTHING, even things that fly completely in the face of reality. Any message, even ones demonstrably false, can be turned into a “truth” if you repeat it often and loudly enough. Republicans discovered that, using propaganda, they could turn a war hero like John Kerry into a war coward. Despite improved metrics in EVERY category (wages, number of jobs, corporate profits, stock market, etc.), Republicans have convinced a significant number of Americans that President Obama destroyed the economy. Even though global temperatures have gone off the charts for the last decade or so, Republicans predict a coming Ice Age. Even though their political candidate was a habitual liar, sexual predator and business failure, they managed to convince us he is the white Savior and his opponent was the criminal.



As the mass media slowly gave way to the propaganda media, Americans have been “dumbed down” to such an extent that we can no longer be capable of critical thought on their own. Conservatives have so refined the techniques of disinformation and built a media landscape that broadcasts their lies so pervasively, that no American can claim to have “free will.” Our values, beliefs and understanding of how the world works have been so perverted by the incessant mistruths coming from the right, I no longer believe Democracy is even possible in this country. As all restrictions on campaign funding have disappeared there is no check, whatsoever, on the dark money being used to purchase the politicians making decisions for us. A message can be crafted, refined, and repeated endlessly until a significant number of people believe it.

The political beliefs of Trump’s many supporters show just how effective the tools of propaganda have become. When it is possible to infect the thinking of so many citizens with information designed to turn them against policies which benefit them, our system can no longer function.

Unfortunately, Republicans will fail to understand the cause of Trump’ s many upcoming failures. His obvious total lack of knowledge, his inability to control his temper and his eagerness to punish his detractors will not make him a successful President. Despite being in total control of every facet of government, Republicans will continue to blame Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the mess they are about to create. As the debt skyrockets, millions of Americans lose health care, and women begin dying again from back-alley abortions, the responsibility will be ENTIRELY on the Republicans.

Sadly, there is little we can do about it……